The first part of this series explained the methodology behind the men’s weightlifting rankings. In part two below, we use the rankings to help predict who will take the only Olympic spot available for Team USA.

Heavy Hitters at Pan-Ams

The next Olympian will be chosen based on his performance at Pan-Ams.

As described in the USAW Athlete Selection Procedures for the 2016 Olympics,:

“. . . the man with the highest number of points scored in total at [Pan Ams] based on the final results of [Pan Ams] will be nominated to the Olympic Team. For each athlete’s respective weight class, whoever places highest at Pan Ams will be nominated to the Olympic Teams. Furthermore, this placement will disregard any athlete from Columbia or Brazil who places higher than each Team USA athlete (Columbia and Brazil have already acquired their number of Olympic spots). In the event of a tie across weight classes, the deciding factor will return to the NCS Matrix for the nominated Olympian.”

As an example, let’s look at one of the lifters in the 105kg weight class.

Donovan Ford

Ford had a spectacular showing at Olympic Trials, highlighted by his last clean-and-jerk to make the Pan-Ams team. Ford’s 368kg total at Olympic Trials would have placed him fifth at last year’s Pan-Ams.



However, in this hypothetical scenario, Ford would actually place fourth in terms of U.S. Olympic Team eligibility because the second-place lifter from Pan-Ams is Brazilian. Obviously, this is just an illustration for how things might play out at this year’s Pan-Ams, but the results from 2015 offer some valuable insight.

Alex Lee

Lee posted another impressive performance at the Olympic Trials, which included an American record set in the clean-and-jerk. Although Lee competed at the 2015 Pan-Ams, he was unable to post a total. But he did total 316kg at the Trials.





If Lee performs at Pan-Ams the way he did at the Trials, a 316kg total could potentially award him third overall. Since the first-place lifter is Colombian, Lee would actually be in second in terms of Olympic team eligibility.  

Kendrick Farris

Farris was outstanding at the Trials with a show-stopping final clean-and-jerk to inch into first on the ranking list. As a 94kg lifter, Farris took first place at Pan-Ams in 2015 with a 366kg total.   



It may be safe to assume that this year’s Pan-Ams will be significant battle between the country’s top 94kg lifters.

Norik Vardanian

Vardanian set an American record in the snatch at the Trials and came out second on the ranking list with a 374kg total. Similarly, Vardanian took second to Farris at the 2015 Pan-Am Games.    

Predicting the Olympian

Farris has won gold at Pan-Ams before, and was able to clinch first after the Trials. It may sound promising for Farris, but the potential for each athlete to score points and place higher is still significant. Vardanian has a fair shot at inching in front of Farris with a mere 3kg difference in totals at Trials.    
Although these numbers have some validity, they are almost arbitrary when considering the mental and physical demands of international competition. The factors that determine the outcome for each athlete are so numerous that it could really be anyone’s spot to claim. The top three ranked athletes from the Trials have a good shot at securing the Olympic spot, but each athlete on the Pan-Ams team has been preparing vigorously for the past six weeks to upset that ranking.

We’ll just have to wait and hope for nothing but the best for our U.S. athletes.

By Jake Baker